The Scenario Planning Process
The 2050 RTP goals guide scenario development and evaluation. Scenarios begin with stories of potential outcomes that are then translated into computer-generated models to be evaluated. The evaluations provide recommendations on how the region can adapt to coming challenges and shape a preferred future.
Deciding which Scenarios to Examine
The 2050 RTP scenarios initially built on the ones prepared for the 2045 RTP, adopted in 2020. Those scenarios focused on what would happen if the region fundamentally changed how it functions, whether by investing more in transit, biking, and walking or by changing land use patterns to be more concentrated and densified around premium transit corridors. The initial concepts for the 2050 RTP scenarios also consider how external forces such as transportation technologies, climate, and policy changes influence future contexts.
Scenario One combines transportation technologies with the 2045 transit scenario, transit and tech. Scenario Two, resilience and growth, combines climate change with the growth scenario from 2045. The framework includes two other concepts, finance and legislative, along with possible disruptions and opportunities.
Three scenario stories were recommended: tech and transit, resilience and growth, and one combining the first two to reflect feedback on compounding effects. Each storyline is then played out in two ways, the first assuming a reactive and siloed approach to planning and the second assuming a proactive and multidisciplinary approach to planning. The framework reflects differing approaches to finance and legislation.
- Proposed Scenario Framework1. Tech and Transit�2. Resiliency and Growth3. Compounding Effects (1 and 2)Outside influencesImpact of technology: By 2050, travel technologies will be available across all modes.Impact of climate change: By 2050, sea level rise and storm frequencies make rebuilding in low-lying and storm-prone areas cost prohibitive.
Perspectives
Proactive/ MultidisciplinaryBBBReactive/ SiloedAAA
2050 Scenarios
Scenario story: By 2050, travel technologies will be available across all modes.
Transit and TechnologyReactive and Siloed PerspectiveProactive and Multidisciplinary PerspectiveSystem integrationTechnology and operations are not integrated. Private companies invest in smart car technologies and public agencies invest in smart roads. Limited investment in transit and other travel technologies encourage continued reliance on autos.Public agencies and private companies develop an integrated, multimodal approach to developing, deploying, and applying technologies to operate and manage the transportation system. The integrated investment and deployment promote multimodal travel across the region.Virtual connectivityTelecommuting increases for white collar workers. Lower-income workers continue commuting to jobs and continue to be challenged by auto-oriented land use patterns and transportation networks. E-tail reduces the number of retail jobs and trips and increases freight and delivery travel demand.Telecommuting and virtual shopping ease congestion, yet rather than a shift to cars, transit and other travel technology investments increase multimodal travel demand. Technology hubs and transit options in low-income areas improves the availability of jobs and commuting times for lower-income workers.Land useSmart cars and roads encourage more people to move to outlying suburbs. Transit ridership drops, forcing service reductions.Mixed-use centers become multimodal technology hubs where residents in surrounding neighborhoods can travel to shared office spaces and e-tail display centers.EquityAuto-oriented development patterns and lower transit service make access even more challenging for lower-income households.Mixed-use, multimodal technology hubs and investments in transit and other travel technologies improve access to low-income households.FinanceCurrent funding levels and programs will remain as they are in 2023.New public and private funding sources become available, along with greater flexibility in how funds can be spent.Scenario story: By 2050, sea level rise and storm frequencies make rebuilding in low-lying and storm-prone areas cost-prohibitive.
Transit and TechnologyReactive and Siloed PerspectiveProactive and Multidisciplinary PerspectiveSystem integrationTechnology and operations are not integrated. Private companies invest in smart car technologies and public agencies invest in smart roads. Limited investment in transit and other travel technologies encourage continued reliance on autos.Public agencies and private companies develop an integrated, multimodal approach to developing, deploying, and applying technologies to operate and manage the transportation system. The integrated investment and deployment promote multimodal travel across the region.Virtual connectivityTelecommuting increases for white collar workers. Lower-income workers continue commuting to jobs and continue to be challenged by auto-oriented land use patterns and transportation networks. E-tail reduces the number of retail jobs and trips and increases freight and delivery travel demand.Telecommuting and virtual shopping ease congestion, yet rather than a shift to cars, transit and other travel technology investments increase multimodal travel demand. Technology hubs and transit options in low-income areas improves the availability of jobs and commuting times for lower-income workers.Land useSmart cars and roads encourage more people to move to outlying suburbs. Transit ridership drops, forcing service reductions.Mixed-use centers become multimodal technology hubs where residents in surrounding neighborhoods can travel to shared office spaces and e-tail display centers.EquityAuto-oriented development patterns and lower transit service make access even more challenging for lower-income households.Mixed-use, multimodal technology hubs and investments in transit and other travel technologies improve access to low-income households.FinanceCurrent funding levels and programs will remain as they are in 2023.New public and private funding sources become available, along with greater flexibility in how funds can be spent.Scenario story: By 2050, travel technologies will be readily available, and sea level rise and storm frequencies make rebuilding in low-lying and storm-prone areas cost-prohibitive.
Compounding EffectsReactive and Siloed PerspectiveProactive and Multidisciplinary PerspectiveTechnologyNew technologies are autocentric. The region spends little on transit technologies and integrating technologies across modes, resulting in fewer transit trips and increased reliance on autos. Telecommuting and e-tailing increase for all but lower-income households due to lack of internet access.Travel technologies are integrated across modes and the region, increasing transit use. Telecommuting and e-tailing increase for all because widespread internet connectivity and multimodal transit technologies improve connectivity for those households.TransitThe lack of ridership and new funding reduces transit service, increasing the challenge for lower-income households to access jobs and services.Investments in and integration of multimodal travel technologies, combined with transit-supportive development patterns and increases in transit funding, increase transit ridership in the region.ResilienceLow-lying and storm-prone areas are abandoned, creating large swaths of undeveloped and environmentally impactful land. The redistribution of development and lack of multimodal network improvements result in greater transportation and housing cost burdens on low-income households.Low-lying and storm-prone areas are repurposed and protected to become interconnected natural habitats as a natural framework for the region. New funding sources are used to purchase and repurpose land. Affordable and workforce housing near premium transit improves access for lower income households.Land useRegional growth slows. Large swaths of undeveloped land and disconnected networks isolate communities and increase trip lengths. Major roads are raised through those areas to maintain a semblance of connectivity but there is increased traffic congestion on the major road network. Autocentric technologies help ease congestion.The region plans for and invests in higher intensity, multimodal centers located outside low-lying and storm-prone areas. The centers are located along major transit lines to increase ridership. The centers become high-tech hubs that provide shared office space and e-tail display centers.
Scenario Planning: Examining a Range of Possibilities
Building a foundation for the future lies at the core of regional planning, but it’s impossible to know exactly what that future will look like. Scenario planning helps engineers, planners, and policymakers explore multiple possible futures and prepare for a range of potential outcomes.
Scenarios explore possibilities. They do not take past trends as a given; rather, they provide insights into how external forces or fundamental changes in existing plans could impact an area. Data platforms such as geographic information systems (GIS) and models such as the Southeast Florida Regional Planning Model (SERPM) create and test scenarios effectively.